EPL Title Odds: Can Manchester City Stay Ahead of Arsenal and Liverpool?
As the English Premier League (EPL) enters the final stretch of an electrifying season, the title race narrows down to three heavyweights: Arsenal, Manchester City, and Liverpool. With only a handful of games remaining for each contender, the tension could not be higher.
In this article, we’ll explore the current EPL sports betting odds and assess each team’s chances of winning one of football’s most coveted trophies.
Manchester City
Currently sitting in first place on the table, Manchester City is two points ahead of both Arsenal and Liverpool and is the current betting favorite to win the English Premier League title at -250. In their last games, Manchester City had a goalless draw at home against Arsenal and secured victories against Luton Town, Aston Villa, and Crystal Palace.
According to expected goals (xG) data from FBRef, City had a narrow edge in their encounter with Arsenal (1.0-0.7), but unfortunately, such statistical wins don’t translate to points on the board. The draw was a missed opportunity for City to advance in the title race, especially considering it was a home game. Yet, the silver lining for Manchester City—and likely a reason they are still favorites—is their favorable schedule ahead. In their remaining seven matches, they face two teams from the bottom four and only two clubs within the top seven—against West Ham (seventh) and Tottenham (fourth), which are their last two games of the season.
While their destiny is not entirely in their hands, their position allows them to sustain pressure on Arsenal and Liverpool. A slip-up from their rivals could put City back in control of the title race. Despite not dominating the league as they have in previous seasons, Manchester City’s quality and depth make them more than capable of overcoming challenges and potentially securing the title.
Arsenal
Arsenal are second on the table with +340 odds. Given they’re only two points behind City and have the same amount of matches played, there is some value to be had with this number. Despite being tied with Liverpool for second place, handicappers see Arsenal in a much better position to overtake City. Arsenal has a five-point goal differential edge over City and eight over Liverpool, showcasing their dominance this season.
The Gunners’ climb in title odds can be attributed to their impressive performances, including a crucial draw against Manchester City away from home. They further solidified their title credentials with a 2-0 victory over Luton and a commanding 3-0 win against Brighton. Their EPL campaign in 2024 has been near flawless, boasting ten wins and a single draw in 11 matches, with a remarkable goal tally of 38-4. Arsenal’s defensive solidity is highlighted by their seven clean sheets out of 11 games, underpinning their status as the league’s top team according to underlying metrics.
However, Arsenal’s path to the title is fraught with obstacles. In their remaining fixtures, they face a challenging lineup, including clashes against three top-six teams—Chelsea, Tottenham, and Manchester United.
Despite being formidable opponents for any team, Arsenal’s relentless form suggests they’re fully equipped to navigate this tough schedule. Yet, the margin for error is incredibly thin; a single draw could see their title fate slip from their control, emphasizing the intensifying pressure in this climactic phase of the season.
Liverpool
Liverpool, currently positioned third in the league and trailing behind both Arsenal and Manchester City, finds themselves at odds of +500 to clinch the English Premier League title. This reflects a notable downturn in their odds, a direct outcome of recent performances that saw them miss crucial opportunities to lead the table.
Notably, a disheartening 2-2 draw against Manchester United—a match where Liverpool excelled based on expected goals (3.6-0.7) yet failed to secure a win—has significantly dented their title aspirations. This was not the first time Liverpool’s trophy hopes were compromised by Manchester-based teams, underscoring a pattern of missed chances at pivotal moments.
The road ahead for Liverpool is bifurcated into contrasting challenges. An ostensibly lenient lineup awaits them with matches against Fulham, Everton, and West Ham, potentially propelling them to the top of the table before they face the tougher segment of their schedule. This includes encounters with Tottenham, a visit to Aston Villa, and a game against Wolves. This latter part of their campaign coincides with Arsenal navigating a more formidable stretch of their season, offering a glimmer of hope for Liverpool to reclaim the upper hand.
However, to realize their aspirations of winning the league, Liverpool must exhibit unwavering consistency and resilience, especially against teams they are expected to defeat. The margin for error is exceedingly narrow; any further loss of points against ostensibly weaker opponents could irrevocably derail their championship ambitions. The pressure mounts as each match could make or break their title pursuit, compelling Liverpool to harness their best form in the remaining fixtures.
