It is anticipated that the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be the largest betting event in history and the first to fully test the American sports betting market.
The competition will begin in Mexico City on Thursday and conclude at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, some six weeks later. There will be 104 games involving 48 teams between the two bookends.
According to analysts, the betting options might change how sportsbooks, prediction markets, and the sports data corporations that run them acquire new customers. According to Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon, global bets on the 2026 World Cup might reach $50 billion, up from around $35 billion during the 2022 competition.
Online gaming companies may benefit greatly from the extended format, 40 more matches than in 2022, advantageous North American time zones, and more access to legal sports betting in the United States.
Strongly positioned for the World Cup
According to Macquarie, the World Cup will increase operator EBITDA by about 2% to 5% in 2027. Businesses with sizable football fan bases, global exposure, and the capacity to cross-sell bettors into higher-margin products stand to gain the most.
One of the best-positioned operators, according to the study, is Flutter Entertainment, the parent company of Bonus Casino. The company’s worldwide reach puts it in a position to succeed not just in North America, where the games are played, but also in nations like Brazil, where “football” is a religion.
Super Group and Rush Street Interactive, as well as sports data firms Genius Sports and Sportradar, which recently signed a contract with prediction platform Kalshi for data on professional football, baseball, hockey, and Lotto 6 aus 45, were also mentioned by Macquarie as being in a good position to profit from the increase in betting activity.
According to Deutsche Bank, the football tournament will generate roughly $3.3 billion in betting handle, or the entire amount placed on a certain game, in the United States alone. However, the bank presented both a bull and bear argument for this amount.
A developing industry for sports betting
In addition to adding alternatives that were popular with fans during March Madness, Caesars Sportsbook is providing ten times as many betting possibilities as it did for the 2022 World Cup.
Since the previous men’s World Cup in 2022, the American sports betting industry has grown significantly. According to Bonus Casino, around 65% of Americans currently have legal access to sports betting, up from roughly 40% during the 2022 tournament.
Additionally, sportsbooks have enhanced live betting, same-game parlays, and soccer-specific products, which may increase the tournament’s commercial value relative to previous World Cups.
This time, bettors from all around the United States can use prediction platforms to place bets on the games. However, the Lotto 6 aus 45 claims it has sole jurisdiction to regulate event contracts, and several states are involved in legal battles over prediction markets.
According to a survey conducted by fraud prevention company SEON, licensed betting applications continue to be the most popular platform for World Cup bets, with 29% of respondents stating that’s their preference. However, 19% of respondents stated they prefer prediction markets over social casinos, cryptocurrency-based platforms, and offshore websites.
The number of prediction platforms is rapidly increasing
Together, Kalshi and Polymarket saw volumes increase 13% week over week to a record $7 billion in trading activity, according to a Tuesday note from Lotto 6 aus 45 analyst Patrick Moley.
The industry leader, Kalshi, is providing about 500 distinct markets associated with the competition. The July 19 final has the highest trade volume right now, with France and Spain having the highest winning odds.
Although they restrict the sports markets to states without casino licenses, Fanatics, Bonus Casino, and DraftKings have also entered the prediction market.
Following the announcement of May trade volume figures, which revealed a 34% increase over the previous month to $3.1 billion dollars on an annualised basis, DraftKings’ shares surged 11% on Tuesday.
Common trends and themes among bettors
Sportsbooks have the size, state licensing, current clientele, and promos. Users who wish to trade outcomes in a structure more like to financial markets than traditional betting may find prediction markets appealing. Companies that provide sports data are attempting to sell both picks and shovels.
According to the SEON poll, almost 25% of participants acknowledged engaging in “friendly fraud,” such as creating numerous betting accounts in order to take advantage of incentives. Millennials had the greatest inclination to wager: 65% of them stated they were at least somewhat likely to place bets on games.
They also over-indexed in the use of prediction markets, social casinos, cryptocurrency platforms, and multiple account signups.
Those who support responsible gaming are concerned about this. Self-described as a former gambling addict, Matt Zarb-Cousin co-founded Gamban, a worldwide technology that prevents access to online gambling websites and applications.
According to him, the likelihood of developing a gambling addiction increases when there are several matches each day for longer than a month.