The Socceroos came within a whisker of beating Brazil in Townsville on 25 September before settling for a 1-1 draw, with the equaliser arriving four minutes into stoppage time. For the rematch in Brisbane on 29 September, Sportsbet has Australia paying $10.00, a longer price than the pre-match consensus gave them before the first game.
An Irankunda free kick and a sting in the tail
An official crowd of 25,440 turned up at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, close to its 25,455 capacity. Nestory Irankunda opened the scoring in the 68th minute, sending a direct free kick from about 20 metres over the wall and into the top corner.
Brazil thought they had scored before the break. Estêvão’s goal was ruled out after a VAR check, the review finding that Bruno Guimarães had grabbed Harry Souttar’s leg at the start of the move.
It all changed in stoppage time.
Substitute Rayan met a Raphinha corner with a downward header that squirmed through Patrick Beach’s hands, clipped the underside of the bar and crossed the line. Australia’s official match report has it at 90+4.
Lucas Herrington finished with three blocks and four clearances, going by the Socceroos’ own numbers. Marcus Younis came on in the 84th minute to become Socceroo No. 662.
What the market says
Before the first game, a price summary on the aggregator SportyTrader had Australia at roughly $6.20 to $6.50 in the match result market, with the draw around $4.50 to $4.60 and Brazil at $1.45 to $1.46. Sportsbet’s market on the rematch, checked at 4:59pm Brisbane time on 28 September, showed $10.00 for Australia, $5.40 for the draw and $1.30 for Brazil. Shortly after midnight, by then 29 September, the market had shifted a touch, to $9.75, $5.10 and $1.31.
Turned into raw implied probability, with the bookmaker’s margin left in, $10.00 works out at about 10 per cent for an Australian win, down from roughly 15 or 16 per cent before Townsville. On Sportsbet’s numbers the Socceroos remain rank outsiders even after the draw. That comparison needs a pinch of salt, since the first-game figure comes from an aggregator summary and the second from one bookie’s market.
The side has no shortage of commercial partners. CommBank holds the naming rights, hence the official CommBank Socceroos, Paramount+ has the second game exclusively, and the bookies put up a market on every game.Online casinos chase the same football audience too, with Wild Tokyo Casino promoting popular pokies on https://wildtokyo-pokies.com/ alongside live dealer tables and blackjack. In Brisbane the Socceroos themselves have to show that Townsville was no fluke.
Who played
Tony Popovic started Beach, Alessandro Circati, Jacob Italiano, Aziz Behich, Souttar, Herrington, Connor Metcalfe, Jackson Irvine, Paul Okon-Engstler, Irankunda and Tete Yengi. Carlo Ancelotti’s starting XI featured Vinícius Júnior, Raphinha, Marquinhos, Estêvão and Endrick.
Brazil sat fifth in the most recent published FIFA ranking, dated 20 July. Together the two games make up the Queensland Football Series of friendlies, which Australia are using to prepare for the Asian Cup in Saudi Arabia, running from 7 January to 5 February 2027. According to the CBF, Brazil are using the trip to run the rule over young players at the start of the cycle towards the 2030 World Cup.
Irankunda’s form
Irankunda has been at Sporting CP in Lisbon since 15 August on a deal running to 2031 with an €80 million release clause. His first league start for the club came against Arouca on 19 September. He went off after 57 minutes. This year he has scored twice for Australia against Curaçao and once against Turkey at the World Cup.
At that tournament Australia got out of their group for only the third time, before going out to Egypt on penalties in the round of 32. Popovic’s side open their Asian Cup campaign in Group D against Singapore on 9 January, with Iraq on 14 January and Tajikistan on 19 January to follow.
The rematch
Next up is the second friendly at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane on 29 September, kicking off at 8pm local time. There has been no official word of a sell-out, and tickets are still on sale through Ticketek. In Australia the match is only on Paramount+.