Atalanta vs Roma Prediction and Preview
The Serie A game between Atalanta and AS Roma on May 12, 2025, at Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo is an important match, as both teams are fighting to qualify for the Champions League.
Match Details
Ø Date and Time: Monday, May 12, 2025, 20:45 CET (18:45 UTC)
Ø Venue: Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo, Italy
Ø Competition: Serie A, Matchday 36
Ø Broadcast: In Italy, DAZN; in France, not televised
Team Form and Standings
Atalanta:
Position: 3rd with 68 points
Recent Form: Strong after a big 4-0 win over Monza. They’ve won 20 out of 35 games this season and have three wins and three clean sheets in their last four league games.
Home Record: They’ve been having a hard time lately, not winning in 8 of their last 9 home games.
Key Player: Mateo Retegui, Serie A’s top scorer with 24 goals, is a major threat. He’s one goal shy of breaking Atalanta’s single-season scoring record.
Injuries/Suspensions
1. Femi Seriki
Right Back
Appearances (25/46) Assists (1)
2. Rhys Norrington-Davies
Rhys Norrington-Davies
Left Back
Appearances (14/46)
3. Ollie Arblaster
Central Midfield
Appearances (12/46) Goals (2) Assists (1)
Predicted Lineup (3-4-2-1): Carnesecchi; Toloi, Kossounou, Djimsiti; Zappacosta, Ederson, De Roon, Bellanova; De Ketelaere, Brescianini; Retegui.
Roma:
Position: 5th or 6th with 63 points (sources vary slightly).
Recent Form: Unbeaten in their last 19 Serie A matches, including wins over Inter (1-0) and Fiorentina (1-0). They’ve won 18 of 35 games this season.
Away Record: Exceptional, winning six of their last seven away games, conceding more than one goal only once in their last ten matches.
Key Player: Artem Dovbyk, with 12 goals, is Roma’s main attacking threat, especially with Paulo Dybala and Lorenzo Pellegrini sidelined.
Injuries: Dybala and Pellegrini are out for the season, but no major new absences reported.
Predicted Lineup (3-5-2): Svilar; Celik, Mancini, Ndicka; Soule, Cristante, Kone, Angelino; Pisilli; Shomurodov, Dovbyk.
Head-to-Head (H2H)
Historical Record: Roma have won 20 of 46 matches against Atalanta, who have 16 victories, with 10 draws.
Recent Meetings: Atalanta are unbeaten in their last five against Roma (4 wins, 1 draw), including a 2-0 win in December 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
At Gewiss Stadium: Atalanta have won 10 of 25 home games against Roma, who also have 10 wins, with 5 draws. The most common result is 2-1 to Atalanta.
Key Stats
Goals: Atalanta have scored the second-most goals in Serie A this season, averaging over two per game, led by Retegui’s 24. Roma have been more pragmatic, scoring exactly one goal in each of their last nine matches.
Defense: Roma’s defense is solid, with goalkeeper Mile Svilar recording 15 clean sheets and a 77.5% save rate. Atalanta’s defense can struggle against top teams.
Corners: Atalanta average 5.2 corners per game (5th in Serie A), Roma 4.5 (12th). Over 9.5 total corners is predicted due to both teams’ attacking play.
Tactical Preview
Atalanta: Under Gian Piero Gasperini, Atalanta play an aggressive, high-pressing 3-4-2-1, relying on Retegui’s finishing and creativity from Charles De Ketelaere (7 goals, 5 assists) and Raoul Bellanova (8 assists). Their home struggles and injury list could be a concern, but their attacking depth remains potent.
Roma: Claudio Ranieri’s pragmatic 3-5-2 focuses on defensive solidity and counter-attacks. Without Dybala and Pellegrini, Roma rely on Dovbyk’s physicality and Matias Soulé’s flair. Their unbeaten streak and away form make them a tough opponent, but their low-scoring trend suggests a tight game.
Predictions
Scoreline: Analysts lean toward a narrow Atalanta win (e.g., 2-1) due to their home advantage and attacking firepower, though a draw (0-0 or 1-1) is also plausible given Roma’s defensive resilience.
Conclusion
This match is a high-stakes battle for a top-four finish. Atalanta’s attacking prowess gives them a slight edge, but Roma’s defensive organization and away form make them dangerous. Expect a tense, possibly low-scoring game with goals from key strikers. A 2-1 Atalanta win or a 1-1 draw are the most likely outcomes.